Total holiday-window card spend beat last year across nearly every retail segment. QSR and grocery led; even big-box discretionary — the category everyone wrote off in Q1 — came in positive.
Visits declined year-over-year across retail POIs, with malls and outlets down hardest. Rising basket size is masking a shrinking shopper base — that's inflation and consolidation, not recovery.
Deal-hunting behavior showed up early: retail and coupon app installs accelerated seven days out, a leading indicator that historically precedes strong holiday conversion. Intent was real.
Adjust the same spend data for category-level price increases and real unit volume lands within a rounding error of zero. Consumers paid more for the same weekend, not a bigger one.
The defining pattern of the last 18 months — consumers trading down to private label — paused for the first time. Premium beverage, apparel, and grill brands outgrew their value rivals over the window. That's confidence you can't see in a headline number.
Know first — starting at $20/month.